By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Cryptocurrency prices ghosted downward over the last 24 hours, haunted by a sell-off in equities after major U.S. tech firms Meta and Microsoft raised their AI investment projections, prompting overspending concerns.
Bitcoin BTC$109,590.89 was little changed, dropping 0.3% to around $110,000 on the 17th anniversary of the publication of its white paper, while ether fell 1.3% to about $3,840. The not-so-spooky move comes as traders assess the shifting outlook for interest rates and inflation on both sides of the Atlantic.
The European Central Bank appears to be pausing its rate-cutting cycle, while the Federal Reserve signaled an interest-rate cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion.” On Polymarket, the perceived odds of three U.S. rate cuts this year slid from 86% to 64%.
Crypto exchange-traded fund flows turned negative, with spot bitcoin ETFs seeing $600 million in outflows so far this week and ETH ETFs registering $184.3 million outflows, according to SoSoValue data.
The ETFs are “showing signs of investor caution,” while the Fear & Greed Index slides deeper into “fear” territory, Bitget COO Vugar Usi Zade said in an emailed statement.
“This transition certainly reflects growing macro anxiety, fueled by persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and uncertainty around the Fed’s policy path,” Zade wrote. “However, despite the pullback, on-chain activity remains resilient, and the structural case for crypto exposure is still intact.”
Zade pointed to long-term factors like the bitcoin halving due in 2028 and evolving global regulation as potential catalysts for long-term rallies, even though “timing is always uncertain.”
At Coinbase, third-quarter earnings beat expectations. The exchange posted $1.9 billion in revenue and confirmed its layer-2 network, Base, is now profitable, thanks to higher ETH prices and rising transaction volume, showing onchain adoption keeps growing.
Meanwhile, derivatives positioning shows bitcoin traders leaning on income strategies in the $105K–$115K range, according Wintermute Strategist Jasper De Maere.
“Over the next few weeks, markets will likely remain sensitive to macro data releases — including Fed commentary, inflation prints, and labor market signals — as well as any resolution to the ongoing government shutdown,” Bitget’s COO added. “These factors may drive sentiment swings, but they don’t alter the longer-term trajectory.”
Beware of ghouls, and stay alert!
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
CryptoOct. 31: The 17th anniversary of the release of the Bitcoin white paper by pseudonymous Bitcoin inventor Satoshi Nakamoto.MacroOct. 31, 8 a.m.: Brazil Sept. Unemployment Rate Est. 5.5%.Oct. 31, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Aug. GDP MoM Est. 0%.Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Governance votes & callsNo major governance votes or calls.UnlocksOct. 31: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.24% of its circulating supply worth $13.07 million.Oct. 31: OP$0.4017 to unlock 1.71% of its circulating supply worth $13.79 million.Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
The altcoin market is heading into the weekend lower than a week ago, with ether ETH$3,838.70 losing 2.5% at $3,850.Many tokens broke through key levels of support in the period, dragging the average down. The CoinDesk 80 Index, a measure of the smallest of the top 100 tokens, fell 3.8% while the CoinDesk 20 dropped 1.3%.Doublezero (2z), plasma XPL$0.2937, gate token (GT) and ENA$0.3987, all declined by between 15% and 21% after extending losses on Friday.A few tokens bucked the trend, notably in-vogue privacy coin ZEC$363.76, which is up by 5% on Friday to add to a weekly gain of 47%.The TRUMP memecoin also performed well after it emerged that the company behind the token plans to buy fundraising platform Republic. TRUMP rose 35% over the past seven days.The altcoin market outlook now depends on whether ether can cling on to its current level of support at $3,700, an area that provided three bounces in October.A break below that level would indicate weakness and a potential macro trend reversal, which is likely to be reflected across the entire altcoin market.
Derivatives Positioning
The bitcoin futures market is in a state of consolidation, with no clear trend emerging.Open interest (OI) fell slightly to $26.16 billion, though it remains elevated. Funding rates across most venues are little changed, indicating low general demand. There is, however, isolated bullish demand evident on specific platforms, like Deribit, where rates spiked to an annualized 8%. The three-month annualized basis, meanwhile, remains subdued in the 4%-5% range, confirming that the basis trade is…