In brief
Bitcoin falls deeper into a death cross, a technical pattern that usually signals a bear market trend.
XRP has likewise formed a death cross pattern on its chart, and Ethereum is close to doing the same.
With the crypto market tumbling, signs point to further downside to come.
Bitcoin bags are getting blown out today, as the price of BTC falls to nearly $80,000 and marks a new seven-month low.
The continued downward pressure on its price has pushed Bitcoin into a so-called death cross—when the average price of an asset over the short term falls below the average price over the long term. It’s a technical pattern that typically signals extended bearish momentum. For traders who study charts, it confirms what permabulls don’t want to hear: It’s over—at least for now.
It’s happening as the crypto market as a whole shrinks to $2.91 trillion, shedding nearly $60 billion in the past 24 hours alone. Almost every single coin in the top 100 by market cap is bleeding red.
The Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment on a scale from 0 to 100, has cratered to 14 points—just four points above the year’s low of 10 back in February. When this index drops below 20, it signals “extreme fear,” and right now, traders are absolutely terrified.
But it’s not just crypto drama driving the market selloff. The macro picture is turning nasty. Just weeks ago, markets were pricing in a 97% chance the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in December. Now? Those odds have collapsed to somewhere between 22% and 43%, depending on which metric you check.
Fed officials are openly divided, with many signaling they’d prefer to keep rates unchanged through year-end. For risk assets like crypto that thrive on easy money, this is poison.
On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, traders are now overwhelmingly convinced that Bitcoin will not mark a new all-time high this year, placing odds at almost 90% that BTC will not top the $126K mark that it hit on October 6.
The bearish vibes are so strong, Myriad traders also currently place 40% odds that Bitcoin falls as low as $69K. So how low will it go? Here’s what the charts say.
Bitcoin (BTC) price: Death cross in place, and bears in control
Bitcoin opened today at $86,691 and immediately sold off, hitting an intraday low of $80,620 before bouncing slightly to its current price at $85,187. That’s a 1.61% drop on the day after being almost 5% down over the last 24 hours. More importantly, for traders, it further confirms the death cross pattern that’s been progressively forming since its all-time high in early October. The death cross pattern was first confirmed on Wednesday as Bitcoin slid to around $88,000—now it’s fallen deeper.
Bitcoin (BTC) price data. Image: Tradingview
Here’s what’s happening on the charts: Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, help traders identify trend direction by tracking the average price of an asset over the short, medium, and long term. When the short-term 50-day EMA falls below the longer-term 200-day EMA, it means bears are in control and the longer-term bull market structure has been broken.
For Bitcoin, the 50-day EMA has now decisively crossed below the 200-day EMA. In short, this tells traders market momentum has shifted from bullish to bearish. The gap between both EMAs increases the more the price of BTC trades below those targets—and the bigger the gap, the stronger the trend.
The price of Bitcoin is now trading well below both EMAs, which creates a situation where each bounce attempt faces immediate resistance, increasing the gap between the two EMAs, making the bearish trend even stronger. Bulls trying to push higher will need to first reclaim the 50-day EMA, then tackle the 200-day—a double wall of resistance that’s historically tough to crack in one go.
As for other technical indicators, the Average Directional Index, or ADX, sits at 41, which is considered “strong.” ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction, with readings above 25 indicating a clear trend is in place. At 41, this tells us we’re not seeing just a minor correction, but a potentially extended move lower.
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, has plunged to 23.18, placing Bitcoin deep in oversold territory. RSI measures momentum on a scale from 0 to 100, with readings below 30 signaling oversold conditions where assets are potentially undervalued. However, “oversold” doesn’t mean the selling has to stop—in strong downtrends, RSI can remain in oversold territory for extended periods as prices continue grinding lower. But, yes, this also provides hopium for momentum traders as it signals that the worst of it may be over. (The worst being an accelerated crash, not necessarily a steady drop.)
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is flashing “bearish impulse,” meaning selling pressure is intensifying rather than easing. Meanwhile, the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVP) shows the price of Bitcoin trading “below”…