By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
It’s a new day, but the same story: BTC$111,603.12 is struggling and ETH$4,010.24 is trying to hold the $4,000 range. Crypto bulls can take some comfort in the fact that there is only one week left in September, a historically bearish month, and what’s usually the strongest quarter is just around the corner.
Sentiment within the industry remains subdued. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 45, which is neutral, but leaning slightly closer toward fear than greed. Part of the reason is bitcoin’s underperformance compared with traditional assets. In the past three months, bitcoin has added 7%, while the S&P 500 gained 9% and gold 12%.
Looking ahead, $17 billion worth of bitcoin options expire tomorrow, with a max pain price (the level at which option holders would experience the most financial loss) of $110,000. That is slightly below the current spot price of $112,000 and could provide short-term gravitational pull. For now, bitcoin is expected to consolidate between $110,000 and $116,000 until October.
Meanwhile, the most notable action continues to be in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing stocks such as IREN (IREN). Bitcoin treasury companies, however, remain under pressure. KindlyMD (NAKA) is struggling at $1.17, just above its Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) pricing, and Metaplanet (3350) fell another 4% in Tokyo. The stock has dropped more than 70% from its all-time high, leaving it trading at a 1.24 multiple to net asset value (mNAV). This decline highlights how mNAVs have compressed across the broader market. Stay alert!
What to Watch
CryptoSept. 25, 8:00 a.m.: Plasma, a layer-1 blockchain designed for global stablecoin payments, starts its mainnet beta and native token, XPL.MacroSept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. August Durable Goods Orders MoM composite Est. -0.5%, ex transportation Est. 0%.Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q2 GDP (final) Growth Rate QoQ Est. 3.3%.Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Jobless Claims initial (w/e Sept. 20) Est. 235K, continuing (w/e Sept. 13) Est. 1930K.Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q2 PCE Prices (final) QoQ headline Est. 2%; core Est. 2.5%.Sept. 25, 10 a.m.: U.S. August Existing Home Sales Est. 3.98M.Sept. 25, 10 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech on “Supervision and Regulation.”Sept. 25, 1 p.m.: Fed Governor Michael Barr speech on “Bank Stress Testing.”Sept. 25, 3 p.m.: Mexico benchmark interest rate Est. 7.5%.Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
Governance votes & callsUnlocksSept. 25: VENOM$0.1349 to unlock 2.28% of its released supply worth $7.98 million.Token LaunchesSept. 25: Aster (ASTER) to list on BTSE.Sept. 25: Plasma (XPL) to list on 10+ exchanges including Binance, OKX and Bitget.Sept. 25: CSPR$0.009358 to list on Gate US.Sept. 25: Avantis (AVNT) to list on BTSE.
Conferences
Token Talk
by Francisco Rodrigues
The price of Hyperliquid’s HYPE token is significantly underperforming the wider crypto market, mainly due to growing competition from BNB Chain-based derivatives exchange Aster and forthcoming token unlocks.Aster, which is backed by YZi Labs, overtook Hyperliquid in daily perpetual trading volume this week in an upset that sent shockwaves through crypto’s on-chain trading ecosystem.In just one week, Aster’s open interest ballooned 33,500%, leaping from $3.7 million to $1.25 billion. Its 24-hour trading volume hit $35.8 billion, more than double that of Hyperliquid, which logged $10 billion according to DeFiLlama data. Total value locked (TVL) on Aster also jumped, almost tripling to $1.85 billion.The platform’s token, ASTER, has added more than 344% in the past week to $2, giving it a fully diluted valuation of $15.9 billion. HYPE slid to $43 from $58.4.HYPE’s drop coincides investor anxiety over upcoming token unlocks. In late November, 237 million HYPE, worth more than $10 billion at current prices, will gradually become liquid over a two-year period.
Derivatives Positioning
Open interest (OI) in futures tied to many major tokens has declined in the past 24 hours, with AVAX witnessing the sharpest drop, nearly 12%.Still, overall positioning in BTC futures remains elevated, with OI hovering close to record highs. ETH’s futures OI has increased to 14.45 million ETH, despite large liquidations on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid.OI in USDT- and dollar-denominated SOL perpetuals on major exchanges has increased slightly from 29 million SOL to 30.28 million SOL since Asian hours, as the spot price drops toward $200. Some traders seem to be shorting the decline.XRP, SOL, HBAR, TRX, SUI and XLM stand out as coins with negative funding rates, pointing to a bias for bearish short positions.On the CME, the downtrend in BTC futures OI has resumed while OI in ether futures has risen back to record highs above 2.2 million ETH. The annualized three-month basis in ETH has dropped to 7% from 9.8% in a sign of weakening of bullish pressures.On…